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Post by autistichatter on May 8, 2024 19:46:58 GMT
Well it's not too soon to start thinking about L1 next season and I've been giving it some thought along the following lines. First off: Stevenage, Orient and Northampton all stayed up fairly comfortably - finishing 9th, 11th and 13th respectively. Obviously Carlisle struggled badly but that often happens with Play Off winners. That suggests that while, yes, there is obviously a step up in terms of competitiveness the jump is not insurmountable. Clearly signing up the likes of King Ben, Sarce, MSH, Rydel etc will help, and a couple of new additions will not go amiss - a good CB, maybe a big man up front for if/when Woots get injured, a good, experienced back up GK - until Ben re-signs we don't actually have a GK on the books, which is a worry.... Something else which occurs to me is the relative size of clubs in L1. Now Ground Capacity is a bit of a blunt weapon since capacity doesn't necessarily translate into season ticket sales, individual game ticket sales, merchandising, etc, and, yes, County are looking to increase the ground capacity in the near future which, fingers crossed could translate into regular cashflow. So where would County rank in terms of ground capacity in L1. Well this first table shows the ground capacities of the teams in L1 for 2023/2024. County by my reckoning would rank somewhere around 13th place at current capacity. If capacity goes up to around 18,500 (if I remember right) then we would rank around 8th or 9th which means we should be competitive. The second table shows Ground Capacities for Championship sides, and it's a sobering read - County would be firmly in the bottom three and up against sides with Capacities in the mid twenties and upwards. The moral of the story being careful what you wish for because promotion would put County in the company of clubs with much greater resources to devote to developing young players and to buy in talent. The recent history of Rotherham, on which I've been thinking lately, underlines this careful what you wish for-ness - more to come in a few days. Anyway here's the link to the tables: www.transfermarkt.co.uk/league-one/stadien/wettbewerb/GB3www.transfermarkt.co.uk/championship/stadien/wettbewerb/GB2 |
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Post by gazz on May 8, 2024 20:04:36 GMT
Superb piece, mate - excellent reading!
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Post by autistichatter on May 12, 2024 14:20:13 GMT
So let's focus on Rotherham for a moment or two. Who they you ask, quite reasonably. Well they finished last season bottom of the Championship - W 5 D 12 L 29 F 37 A 89 - which, by any standard, is a poor season. What I find interesting though is their record over the last 8 seasons:
2016/17 Championship (R) - bottom
2017/18 League 1 (P) 4th - playoffs
2028/19 Championship (R) - 22nd
2019/20 League 1 (P) - second
2020/21 Championship (R) - 23rd
2021/22 League 1 - (P) second
2022/23 Championship 19th - 6 points from the drop
2023/24 Championship (R)
So in 7 of 8 seasons they were either promoted or relegated - which must be pretty demoralising, and the one time they avoided the drop they were only safe by 6 points which is not a comfortable margin at all. All rather suggesting that the gap between L1 and Championship is pretty steep. Now there are probably a host of factors causing this up-and-down-ness: one may simply be that in the same time period they've had, by my reckoning, 6 different managers. After all: changing managers is always the solution to poor form right? Sure!
Just harking back to the point I was making above, about using ground capacity as a rough measure of operating cashflow, look at the foot of the Championship table and you'll see Rotherham rock bottom with a capacity of 12,000 at the AESSEAL New York Stadium, no longer the Millmoor of old times.
Bearing in mind that County's capacity at present is what, 11,000, that makes me a bit nervy, to put it mildly, of what kind of seasons could await County in the Championship. Even with the expanded capacity that is being planned I still feel anxious about how competitive County could be, both on the pitch and off, and even with Mark Stott's backing.
So what might help County stay in the Championship if we were to get there? Well one thing could be turning EP into a Bear Pit where Angels fear to tread, another could be good recruitment and a third a productive Academy. You can probably think of a few others. In any event, it's always good to be careful what you wish for: overnight success so often becomes overnight failure, just look at Rotherham. As ever, Fingers crossed.
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Post by gazz on May 12, 2024 14:46:41 GMT
Another great read, mate and you're absolutely right in your assessment.
I think a couple of seasons of holding our own in League One will do us good, and is probably better than just ploughing straight through.
Indeed, the last time we got to what is now known as League One, it took us another 6 seasons and a brand new stand (CE) before we managed to get to what is now known as the championship.
Although the plan will no doubt be to get there quicker this time around, I don't think it'll do us any harm to spend a couple of seasons in a holding pattern while the RE(?) is updated.
Whatever the plan is, it'll be a lot harder getting out of League One than it was League Two, so we might have to be a little more realistic in our expectations.
Also, the last thing we want is to be like Rotherham, so I'm all for a bit of slowly, slowly catchy Monkey myself.
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Post by autistichatter on May 12, 2024 14:56:38 GMT
I nearly forgot.... Rotherham has appeared in music a few times....
This is the Everley Pregnant Brothers and Rovvrum, a sensitive tribute to Amy Winehouse from their legendary show at the Fat Cat
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Post by autistichatter on May 12, 2024 15:03:26 GMT
And while I'm on the subject of the Everly Pregnant Brothers, how about their classic take on urban alienation: 69 to Rotherham...
Not that kind of 69, oh dear..... tut tut
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Post by autistichatter on May 22, 2024 9:05:59 GMT
I can't help thinking that we've been here before, L1 I mean, or since it was the 1990's L2, before L1 became The Championship, if you follow me.
Anyway, so part of me is thinking what's new about being in this division. Well for a start there's a lot more money in the game, for (some) good and (a whole lot of) bad. The economics of football, as I've said on here before, are ruinous and I'm not convinced that this so called Football Regulator is going to make much difference.
Something else that is definitely different is the proliferation of loan signings. Back in the 90s I don't recall loan players being something you came across very often. Now it seems like most sides have at least 5 or 6 loan players on their books at any one time.
Just off the top of my head last season we had Louie Barry, Odin Bailey, Alfie Pond, Joel Cotterill, Ethan Bristow, Rico Richards, Rhys Bennett, Lewis Cass and the boy Knight from City. That's 9 in total, although not all at the same time, and from memory of the Who Are... pieces I wrote most teams had at least 5 loan players.
Looking at the loan players County signed, only Louie (when fit), Bailey, Bristow (in part because of injuries to Rydel and Touray) and Rico (because of the injury to Barry) played any significant roles. Cass and Cotterill played a few games, Pond, Bennett and Knight I don't think made it onto the pitch (happy to be corrected). That all seems to be a bit 50:50.
So my question, dear readers, is what proportion of loan signings is it reasonable to expect to play significant parts in a season? How does County's experience in 2023/2024 compare to other seasons?
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Post by bringbacklenwhite on May 22, 2024 10:08:24 GMT
With Madden and Sarcevic departed County will need some mature heads to deal with the trappings of League 1.
Yes, I am all in favour of reducing the average age of the team but we will need some bodies that have been there and done that.
I expect 3/4 loans to arrive over the break with the view to a couple of top ups once we have a foot hold in the division and depending on injuries etc.
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Post by gazz on May 22, 2024 10:51:09 GMT
Another excellent piece, AH.
I'm inclined to go with Lennie's suggestion of 3/4 loan signings, as long as they're not all being relied upon constantly, as the perfect scenario - for me, anyway - would be to have our own core of quality mainstays, with any loan signings coming in to complement them and give us a boost when needed.
I just don't want us to be too heavily dependant on the loan market.
Having said that, Mark Stott suggested that the plan going forward is to be bringing younger players on to sell them for a profit, so what better way to help their development than to play alongside loan players from the championship or higher?
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Post by hatter_in_macc on May 22, 2024 11:00:40 GMT
Just on the question of loanees that were used or unused...
County always seem to have one that fails to make it on to the pitch. Joe Grayson (from Barrow) had that distinction in 2022/23, and Ben Knight emulated him for the season just gone.
Alfie Pond actually made five starts - albeit only one in the League - and the same number of appearances as a sub. And Rhys Bennett was in defence just the once - for that afternoon to forget at Tranmere.
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Post by archie on May 22, 2024 13:34:52 GMT
Last season, EFL clubs were only allowed 5 loan players in the matchday squad although they could have more on their books.
Unless there's a special target player who may brought in for the full season, I'd have thought that temporary loans in are left until the end of the window to plug gaps where we've failed to sign a target. I'm sure that experienced recruiters like DC and Wilson will have had this mapped out for some time with primary and secondary targets alongside the negotiations for the players who were out of contract at the end of the season.
As an interesting side note, I see that Wayne Hennessey has been released by Forest. Would be an apt bookend to his career.
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Post by hatter_in_macc on May 22, 2024 13:54:07 GMT
Hennessey is only just over seven months older than Hinchliffe! Not beyond the realms of possibility - assuming the former would settle for not being guaranteed top billing - and he would receive a very warm welcome back.  |
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Post by gazz on May 22, 2024 14:55:41 GMT
That would indeed be a fitting way for the history-maker to bring his career to a close, Archie.
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Post by dudleyhatter on May 22, 2024 16:14:31 GMT
I think we will look to buy younger players and maybe bring in some of the older experienced heads on loan or pick some up for free as they come out of contract. But we have to trust in the management team who have done okay so far!
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Post by ceefer on Jun 29, 2024 17:09:16 GMT
The only negative with departures and new arrivals is the time it takes for the team to understand each other and adapt. If we make the play offs that will be a good return but consolidation seems more likely.
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